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Vietnam, as the policy has been discussed for a decade in the country but the likely impacts on the economy and different sectors are still unidentified. The simulations are carried out in a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, an extension of the GTAP-E model, which treats Vietnam as a country region. Results show that restricting the number of industrial sectors in the emissions trading market substantially affects the country’s economy with a decline in real GDP by 4.57%. However, the country experiences much smaller adverse impacts (e.g., real GDP declines by 1.78%) when all industries participate in the emissions trading market. In either case of the ETS design, the coal mining, manufacturing, transportation, and electricity sectors are highly adversely affected; however, the crude oil and natural gas extraction sectors would experience expansion in their production levels due to substitutions for coal. In general, under the policy the emission levels from burning fossil fuels decline at significant rates, particularly from the electricity generation sector.
ETSs have been introduced in many countries around the world (Baba- tunde et al., 2017; Simshauser and Tiernan, 2018). The Government of Vietnam may also expect to increase the public budget from introducing the ETS since the country has been running the national budget deficits for years. Under the scheme, it was proposed to reduce in 2020 the emission levels of the energy by 8% (achieving 91.37 MtCO2e) and transport sectors by 8% (achieving 17.71 MtCO2e) and of the agricul- tural sector by 20% (achieving 46.97 MtCO2e) compared to the 2005 emission levels (Vietnam Net, 2012). In 2015, the World Bank provided $3 million to Giúp Vietnam establish a national greenhouse gas emis- sions database, aiming to provide a foundation for Vietnam to create its emissions trading market and carbon credits (Vietnam News, 2015). Recently, the director of the Vietnamese Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change announced that Vietnam would soon establish the emissions trading market through the Clean Development Mechanism (Vietnam Net, 2017). However, the final approval for establishing an ETS has not been issued by the Vietnamese government due to many institutional and market obstacles.
A better understanding of the potential impacts of ETSs on the economy is therefore the key to properly design an ETS and sustain its operation in a country. However, to date, there have been no studies that have examined such impacts in Vietnam. This study, therefore, aims to estimate the economy-wide impacts of an ETS implementation in Viet- nam by employing a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach. Eventually, it seeks to answer whether implementing an ETS would be an appropriate policy option for Vietnam under the current situation. The ETS is designed subject to the 2020 emission target as proposed by the Government, under different estab- lishment scenarios in the domestic market in Vietnam. The 2020 target is the focus at present, as the policy design is clear, while the 2030 target and a real policy with detailed design are still uncertain. Additionally, it is also crucial at present to understand the impacts subject to the forthcoming target, as it will provide a foundation to better design a policy for a longer-term target.
This study is expected to make useful contributions to the literature. First, it could provide domestic readers and policymakers with potential impacts of an ETS in various contexts, thus supporting decision-making processes and increasing the likelihood of a sound ETS implementation in Vietnam. Second, while the economic impacts of ETSs on major economies, such as Europe, China, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea, have been thoroughly studied (Babatunde et al., 2017), such impacts on developing countries such as Vietnam have not been well-understood. This study could provide an example and insights to guide ETS adoption and implementation in developing countries with similar economic conditions. Third, although reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a global effort, the implementation of ETSs to curb national greenhouse gas emission levels is still sporadic and unsystematic due to unstandardized trading mechanisms (Simshauser and Tiernan, 2018). The findings of this study could contribute valuable information towards the establishment of a standardized carbon market, reconciling different biophysical and social-economic contexts. A standardized carbon mar- ket that potentially helps to link any different carbon systems would include all industrial sectors in the scheme. This is because a potential linkage between two emissions trading systems essentially requires compatible carbon market design, including the types of emissions covered, constrained sectors and compensation. For example, it took seven years (from 2010 to 2017) of negotiation, due to the aforemen- tioned reasons, to link the Swiss ETS with the European Union (EU) ETS.2 In this instance, Switzerland has to include the aviation sector in their scheme. Fossil-thermal power plants also no longer receive compensation. Hence, if all carbon systems include all sectors, linking different emissions trading systems can be conducted at faster rates. In addition, the recently increased tax rates on petroleum products and coal were found to have highly unfavorable impacts on the Vietnamese economy (Nong, 2018). A new study of the impacts of a different policy is therefore relatively important to have a comparison with the impacts of the other policy in previous studies so that the government of Vietnam may reconsider the policy options to maintain sustainable economic development.
The remaining sections are organized as follows. Section 2 provides a literature review of ETS studies around the world and energy policy studies in Vietnam. Section 3 specifies the modeling approach, database and scenario design. Section 4 presents the study’ findings and discusses the economic impacts of the ETS policy in Vietnam, while Section 5 provides the concluding remarks and policy implications.
2. Survey of climate change studies
Various climate change policies, such as carbon taxes, ETSs, emission
2
Energy Policy 140 (2020) 111362
subsidies, and energy taxes, have been implemented to curb released emissions in many countries around the world. Carbon taxes were implemented and/or discussed in Ireland (Wissema and Dellink, 2007), in Australia (Meng et al., 2013; Siriwardana et al., 2013), in Mexico (Renner et al., 2018), and in Chile (Benavente, 2016). An emission subsidy in which a government pays polluters to reduce their emissions levels has been implementing in Australia (Nelson, 2015; Nelson et al., 2012; Nong, 2019; Simshauser, 2018). However, a market-based approach, known as the emissions trading scheme, would be more favorable and has been introduced in many countries and regions. This is because the mechanism allows the market to determine a carbon price and offers possibilities to link carbon markets across country borders. ETSs have been introduced in the member countries of the European Union, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea, and other re- gions in China, the United States, and Canada (Simshauser and Tiernan, 2018; Siriwardana and Nong, 2018).
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Vietnam, as the policy has been discussed for a decade in the country but the likely impacts on the economy and different sectors are still unidentified. The simulations are carried out in a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, an extension of the GTAP-E model, which treats Vietnam as a country region. Results show that restricting the number of industrial sectors in the emissions trading market substantially affects the country’s economy with a decline in real GDP by 4.57%. However, the country experiences much smaller adverse impacts (e.g., real GDP declines by 1.78%) when all industries participate in the emissions trading market. In either case of the ETS design, the coal mining, manufacturing, transportation, and electricity sectors are highly adversely affected; however, the crude oil and natural gas extraction sectors would experience expansion in their production levels due to substitutions for coal. In general, under the policy the emission levels from burning fossil fuels decline at significant rates, particularly from the electricity generation sector.
ETSs have been introduced in many countries around the world (Baba- tunde et al., 2017; Simshauser and Tiernan, 2018). The Government of Vietnam may also expect to increase the public budget from introducing the ETS since the country has been running the national budget deficits for years. Under the scheme, it was proposed to reduce in 2020 the emission levels of the energy by 8% (achieving 91.37 MtCO2e) and transport sectors by 8% (achieving 17.71 MtCO2e) and of the agricul- tural sector by 20% (achieving 46.97 MtCO2e) compared to the 2005 emission levels (Vietnam Net, 2012). In 2015, the World Bank provided $3 million to Giúp Vietnam establish a national greenhouse gas emis- sions database, aiming to provide a foundation for Vietnam to create its emissions trading market and carbon credits (Vietnam News, 2015). Recently, the director of the Vietnamese Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change announced that Vietnam would soon establish the emissions trading market through the Clean Development Mechanism (Vietnam Net, 2017). However, the final approval for establishing an ETS has not been issued by the Vietnamese government due to many institutional and market obstacles.
A better understanding of the potential impacts of ETSs on the economy is therefore the key to properly design an ETS and sustain its operation in a country. However, to date, there have been no studies that have examined such impacts in Vietnam. This study, therefore, aims to estimate the economy-wide impacts of an ETS implementation in Viet- nam by employing a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach. Eventually, it seeks to answer whether implementing an ETS would be an appropriate policy option for Vietnam under the current situation. The ETS is designed subject to the 2020 emission target as proposed by the Government, under different estab- lishment scenarios in the domestic market in Vietnam. The 2020 target is the focus at present, as the policy design is clear, while the 2030 target and a real policy with detailed design are still uncertain. Additionally, it is also crucial at present to understand the impacts subject to the forthcoming target, as it will provide a foundation to better design a policy for a longer-term target.
This study is expected to make useful contributions to the literature. First, it could provide domestic readers and policymakers with potential impacts of an ETS in various contexts, thus supporting decision-making processes and increasing the likelihood of a sound ETS implementation in Vietnam. Second, while the economic impacts of ETSs on major economies, such as Europe, China, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea, have been thoroughly studied (Babatunde et al., 2017), such impacts on developing countries such as Vietnam have not been well-understood. This study could provide an example and insights to guide ETS adoption and implementation in developing countries with similar economic conditions. Third, although reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a global effort, the implementation of ETSs to curb national greenhouse gas emission levels is still sporadic and unsystematic due to unstandardized trading mechanisms (Simshauser and Tiernan, 2018). The findings of this study could contribute valuable information towards the establishment of a standardized carbon market, reconciling different biophysical and social-economic contexts. A standardized carbon mar- ket that potentially helps to link any different carbon systems would include all industrial sectors in the scheme. This is because a potential linkage between two emissions trading systems essentially requires compatible carbon market design, including the types of emissions covered, constrained sectors and compensation. For example, it took seven years (from 2010 to 2017) of negotiation, due to the aforemen- tioned reasons, to link the Swiss ETS with the European Union (EU) ETS.2 In this instance, Switzerland has to include the aviation sector in their scheme. Fossil-thermal power plants also no longer receive compensation. Hence, if all carbon systems include all sectors, linking different emissions trading systems can be conducted at faster rates. In addition, the recently increased tax rates on petroleum products and coal were found to have highly unfavorable impacts on the Vietnamese economy (Nong, 2018). A new study of the impacts of a different policy is therefore relatively important to have a comparison with the impacts of the other policy in previous studies so that the government of Vietnam may reconsider the policy options to maintain sustainable economic development.
The remaining sections are organized as follows. Section 2 provides a literature review of ETS studies around the world and energy policy studies in Vietnam. Section 3 specifies the modeling approach, database and scenario design. Section 4 presents the study’ findings and discusses the economic impacts of the ETS policy in Vietnam, while Section 5 provides the concluding remarks and policy implications.
2. Survey of climate change studies
Various climate change policies, such as carbon taxes, ETSs, emission
2
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/climate-policy/emissions-trading/linking-the-swiss-and-eu-emissions-tradin g-schemes.html.Energy Policy 140 (2020) 111362
subsidies, and energy taxes, have been implemented to curb released emissions in many countries around the world. Carbon taxes were implemented and/or discussed in Ireland (Wissema and Dellink, 2007), in Australia (Meng et al., 2013; Siriwardana et al., 2013), in Mexico (Renner et al., 2018), and in Chile (Benavente, 2016). An emission subsidy in which a government pays polluters to reduce their emissions levels has been implementing in Australia (Nelson, 2015; Nelson et al., 2012; Nong, 2019; Simshauser, 2018). However, a market-based approach, known as the emissions trading scheme, would be more favorable and has been introduced in many countries and regions. This is because the mechanism allows the market to determine a carbon price and offers possibilities to link carbon markets across country borders. ETSs have been introduced in the member countries of the European Union, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea, and other re- gions in China, the United States, and Canada (Simshauser and Tiernan, 2018; Siriwardana and Nong, 2018).
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